Research Abstracts 1996-1997: Report No. 97-01

Barbour, P.L. and S. N. Walker, “A Preliminary Evaluation of the Use of a Mesoscale Model for Wind Energy Forecasting," OSU Wind Research Cooperative, WRC Report No. 97-01, July 15, 1997, 38 pp., $19.00.

The main purpose of this project was to provide a preliminary evaluation of the use of a mesoscale model in preparing wind energy forecasts for time periods up to about 36 hours. The results from ten case studies of conditions along the Oregon coast have been examined and show varying degrees of accuracy. The coast of Oregon was selected as a study region because of the effects of two separate types of topographically influenced flow patterns. A number on problems and inadequacies became apparent in the case studies examined. The largest and most obvious problem is the poor performance of the model in predicting the u (west-east) wind component. For each of the sites, the model showed virtually no skill in predicting the u wind component. In general, however, the results were encouraging with overall errors similar to those of widely used MOS wind forecasts. Improvements are believed possible through a combination of changes in the model configuration and improved methods of converting model predictions to site specific wind forecasts. The model changes include enlarging the domain and changing to a nested grid approach.